Do technical signals work? What the data says
MarketWall replayed its own daily price history and found every past occurrence of four common technical signals. For each one, we measured what the price did over the next 5, 20 and 60 trading sessions, and compared it with a baseline: any 20-session window for the same stocks over the same period. A signal only means something if it beats that baseline.
Period: May 18, 2022 – October 9, 2026. Stock results cover companies with a market cap of at least $300M. Updated weekly.
US stocks
Bollinger Band Breakdown
66,580 signals · 3,557 stocksMedian 20-session return
+0.9%
baseline +0.5%
Higher after 20 sessions
54%
baseline 53%
Difference vs. baseline
+0.41 pts
Bollinger Band Breakout
81,148 signals · 3,561 stocksMedian 20-session return
+0.5%
baseline +0.5%
Higher after 20 sessions
53%
baseline 53%
Difference vs. baseline
-0.02 pts
200-Day Moving Average Touch
53,860 signals · 3,528 stocksMedian 20-session return
+0.5%
baseline +0.5%
Higher after 20 sessions
53%
baseline 53%
Difference vs. baseline
-0.03 pts
Volume Spike
108,342 signals · 3,525 stocksMedian 20-session return
+0.7%
baseline +0.5%
Higher after 20 sessions
53%
baseline 53%
Difference vs. baseline
+0.16 pts
Crypto
Bollinger Band Breakdown
8,999 signals · 389 coinsMedian 20-session return
-2.7%
baseline -3.6%
Higher after 20 sessions
43%
baseline 41%
Difference vs. baseline
+0.89 pts
Bollinger Band Breakout
8,466 signals · 389 coinsMedian 20-session return
-3.6%
baseline -3.6%
Higher after 20 sessions
43%
baseline 41%
Difference vs. baseline
0.00 pts
200-Day Moving Average Touch
3,385 signals · 355 coinsMedian 20-session return
-2.9%
baseline -3.6%
Higher after 20 sessions
43%
baseline 41%
Difference vs. baseline
+0.74 pts
Volume Spike
15,505 signals · 389 coinsMedian 20-session return
-3.7%
baseline -3.6%
Higher after 20 sessions
42%
baseline 41%
Difference vs. baseline
-0.07 pts
How to read these numbers
- A signal is counted on the first day its condition becomes true, with a 10-session cooldown, so one long touch doesn't count ten times.
- Returns are close-to-close and exclude dividends. Medians are used because a few huge moves would distort an average.
- Only companies that still trade today are included, so failed companies are missing (survivorship bias). This makes long-only results look somewhat better than they were.
- These are past results. They describe what happened, not what will happen, and are not investment advice.
Want the same numbers for one stock? Every stock page on MarketWall now shows its own signal track record. See also the Daily Market Report and Insider Cluster Buys.