Volume Spike: what happened next
A signal is counted each time daily volume reaches at least 2x the average of the previous 20 sessions. We measured the price 5, 20 and 60 trading sessions later. What is Volume Spike?
108,342 signals in 3,525 US stocks with a market cap of at least $300M, May 18, 2022 – October 9, 2026.
In this period, stocks did better than usual after this signal: a median 20-session return of +0.70% against +0.54% for any 20-session window, and higher 53% of the time against 53%.
US stocks: returns after the signal
| After | Median return | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions (~1 week) | +0.13% | +0.15% | 51% | 51% |
| 20 sessions (~1 month) | +0.70% | +0.54% | 53% | 53% |
| 60 sessions (~3 months) | +2.38% | +2.12% | 56% | 56% |
How the 20-session outcomes are spread
Share of signals in each return bucket, next to the same share for any 20-session window.
By company size
| Group | Signals | Median 20-session | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega cap ($200B+) | 1,924 | +2.39% | +1.67% | 62% | 59% |
| Large cap ($10B–200B) | 26,516 | +1.10% | +0.95% | 56% | 55% |
| Mid cap ($2B–10B) | 35,144 | +0.86% | +0.60% | 54% | 53% |
| Small cap ($300M–2B) | 44,758 | +0.22% | +0.16% | 51% | 51% |
| Micro cap (under $300M) | 48,711 | -2.70% | -2.59% | 42% | 41% |
By sector
| Group | Signals | Median 20-session | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finance | 22,209 | +0.85% | +0.68% | 55% | 55% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 19,579 | +0.53% | +0.51% | 52% | 52% |
| Health Care | 16,573 | +0.41% | +0.15% | 51% | 50% |
| Technology | 12,884 | +0.54% | +0.41% | 52% | 51% |
| Industrials | 12,315 | +0.89% | +0.63% | 54% | 53% |
| Real Estate | 5,349 | +0.79% | +0.48% | 55% | 53% |
| Utilities | 4,304 | +0.56% | +0.51% | 54% | 54% |
| Energy | 4,079 | +0.94% | +0.67% | 55% | 53% |
| Basic Materials | 3,422 | +0.95% | +0.53% | 53% | 52% |
| Telecommunications | 1,987 | +0.45% | +0.24% | 52% | 51% |
| Consumer Staples | 1,948 | +0.30% | +0.41% | 51% | 52% |
| Miscellaneous | 876 | -0.18% | -0.26% | 49% | 49% |
| AI | 769 | +2.69% | +1.86% | 56% | 56% |
| Food | 665 | -0.15% | -0.16% | 49% | 49% |
| Defence | 522 | +1.07% | +1.26% | 57% | 57% |
| Aviation | 435 | +0.91% | +1.03% | 53% | 55% |
Crypto
15,505 signals in 389 coins. Crypto trades every day, so a "session" is a calendar day.
In this period, coins did about the same after this signal as they did on any other day: the signal on its own did not tell you much about the next month.
| After | Median return | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions (~1 week) | -1.01% | -0.62% | 45% | 46% |
| 20 sessions (~1 month) | -3.69% | -3.62% | 42% | 41% |
| 60 sessions (~3 months) | -10.70% | -9.98% | 36% | 37% |
Stocks with this signal right now
Companies above $2B where MarketWall's live engine currently flags this signal, with each stock's own record after its past signals of this type.
| Stock | Past signals | Median 20-session | Higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKB · Duke Energy Corporation 5.625% Junior Subordinated Debentures due 2078 | 44 | 0.0% | 48% |
| DXPE · DXP Enterprises Inc. | 31 | +1.3% | 55% |
| TDTH · Trident Digital Tech Holdings Ltd | 11 | -9.3% | 36% |
| CELC · Celcuity Inc. | 43 | +1.2% | 53% |
| TENB · Tenable Holdings Inc. | 40 | -0.0% | 50% |
| DTG · DTE Energy Company 2021 Series E 4.375% Junior Subordinated Debentures | 40 | -0.4% | 48% |
| APPN · Appian Corporation | 31 | -3.6% | 45% |
| CPRT · Copart Inc. (DE) | 28 | -2.2% | 39% |
| DNOW · DNOW Inc. | 36 | +2.5% | 61% |
| CDW · CDW Corporation | 31 | +0.6% | 58% |
Method and limits
- Counted on the first day the condition becomes true, with a 10-session cooldown.
- Baseline = every 20-session window for the same stocks over the same period, so the comparison shows what the signal adds beyond the market's general drift.
- Close-to-close returns, no dividends, no trading costs. Moves beyond +300% or -95% in 20 sessions are treated as data errors and left out.
- Only companies that still trade today are included (survivorship bias).
- Past results are not a forecast and not investment advice.