Bollinger Band Breakout: what happened next
A signal is counted each time the closing price crosses above the upper Bollinger Band (20 sessions, 2 standard deviations). We measured the price 5, 20 and 60 trading sessions later. What is Bollinger Band Squeeze & Breakout?
81,148 signals in 3,561 US stocks with a market cap of at least $300M, May 18, 2022 – October 9, 2026.
In this period, stocks did about the same after this signal as they did on any other day: the signal on its own did not tell you much about the next month.
US stocks: returns after the signal
| After | Median return | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions (~1 week) | 0.00% | +0.15% | 50% | 51% |
| 20 sessions (~1 month) | +0.52% | +0.54% | 53% | 53% |
| 60 sessions (~3 months) | +1.30% | +2.12% | 54% | 56% |
How the 20-session outcomes are spread
Share of signals in each return bucket, next to the same share for any 20-session window.
By company size
| Group | Signals | Median 20-session | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega cap ($200B+) | 1,870 | +1.83% | +1.67% | 60% | 59% |
| Large cap ($10B–200B) | 21,540 | +1.10% | +0.95% | 56% | 55% |
| Mid cap ($2B–10B) | 26,347 | +0.56% | +0.60% | 53% | 53% |
| Small cap ($300M–2B) | 31,391 | 0.00% | +0.16% | 50% | 51% |
| Micro cap (under $300M) | 33,181 | -3.73% | -2.59% | 39% | 41% |
By sector
| Group | Signals | Median 20-session | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finance | 17,641 | +0.74% | +0.68% | 56% | 55% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 14,748 | +0.61% | +0.51% | 53% | 52% |
| Health Care | 11,112 | 0.00% | +0.15% | 50% | 50% |
| Industrials | 9,340 | +0.55% | +0.63% | 53% | 53% |
| Technology | 9,215 | +0.10% | +0.41% | 50% | 51% |
| Real Estate | 4,152 | +0.69% | +0.48% | 56% | 53% |
| Utilities | 3,190 | +0.67% | +0.51% | 55% | 54% |
| Energy | 3,119 | +0.12% | +0.67% | 51% | 53% |
| Basic Materials | 2,644 | +0.29% | +0.53% | 51% | 52% |
| Consumer Staples | 1,475 | +0.02% | +0.41% | 50% | 52% |
| Telecommunications | 1,452 | +0.35% | +0.24% | 52% | 51% |
| AI | 695 | +1.46% | +1.86% | 53% | 56% |
| Miscellaneous | 611 | +0.12% | -0.26% | 50% | 49% |
| Food | 520 | -0.17% | -0.16% | 48% | 49% |
| Defence | 424 | +1.36% | +1.26% | 58% | 57% |
| Aviation | 400 | +2.47% | +1.03% | 59% | 55% |
Crypto
8,466 signals in 389 coins. Crypto trades every day, so a "session" is a calendar day.
In this period, coins did worse than usual after this signal: a median 20-session return of -3.62% against -3.62% for any 20-session window, and higher 43% of the time against 41%.
| After | Median return | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions (~1 week) | -0.93% | -0.62% | 46% | 46% |
| 20 sessions (~1 month) | -3.62% | -3.62% | 43% | 41% |
| 60 sessions (~3 months) | -12.11% | -9.98% | 36% | 37% |
Stocks with this signal right now
Companies above $2B where MarketWall's live engine currently flags this signal, with each stock's own record after its past signals of this type.
| Stock | Past signals | Median 20-session | Higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL · Ball Corporation | 20 | -0.8% | 45% |
| EXC · Exelon Corporation | 22 | +1.6% | 64% |
| MGY · Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | 22 | +0.3% | 55% |
| FRHC · Freedom Holding Corp. | 27 | +1.9% | 63% |
| AON · Aon plc | 22 | +0.9% | 64% |
| PG · Procter & Gamble Company (The) | 14 | -1.4% | 29% |
| AEE · Ameren Corporation | 20 | +1.5% | 65% |
| CL · Colgate-Palmolive Company | 21 | +2.0% | 67% |
| KMI · Kinder Morgan Inc. | 27 | +1.1% | 59% |
| COTY · Coty Inc. | 23 | -4.8% | 43% |
| POOL · Pool Corporation | 21 | -1.9% | 38% |
| APD · Air Products and Chemicals Inc. | 26 | +0.1% | 50% |
| KNSL · Kinsale Capital Group Inc. | 21 | +4.5% | 67% |
| ADP · Automatic Data Processing Inc. | 22 | +2.1% | 59% |
| GIB · CGI Inc. | 21 | -0.5% | 38% |
| KOF · Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. | 30 | +2.3% | 70% |
| SPGI · S&P Global Inc. | 18 | +0.4% | 61% |
| HALO · Halozyme Therapeutics Inc. | 27 | +4.4% | 63% |
| LPX · Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 21 | +2.6% | 71% |
| SCI · Service Corporation International | 22 | -0.3% | 45% |
| SIGI · Selective Insurance Group Inc. | 20 | -0.1% | 50% |
| SR · Spire Inc. | 27 | +0.0% | 52% |
| DKS · Dick's Sporting Goods Inc | 27 | -2.1% | 44% |
| HST · Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. | 23 | +2.8% | 65% |
| MO · Altria Group Inc. | 21 | +2.4% | 62% |
Method and limits
- Counted on the first day the condition becomes true, with a 10-session cooldown.
- Baseline = every 20-session window for the same stocks over the same period, so the comparison shows what the signal adds beyond the market's general drift.
- Close-to-close returns, no dividends, no trading costs. Moves beyond +300% or -95% in 20 sessions are treated as data errors and left out.
- Only companies that still trade today are included (survivorship bias).
- Past results are not a forecast and not investment advice.