Bollinger Band Breakdown: what happened next
A signal is counted each time the closing price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band (20 sessions, 2 standard deviations). We measured the price 5, 20 and 60 trading sessions later. What is Bollinger Band Squeeze & Breakout?
66,580 signals in 3,557 US stocks with a market cap of at least $300M, May 18, 2022 – October 9, 2026.
In this period, stocks did better than usual after this signal: a median 20-session return of +0.95% against +0.54% for any 20-session window, and higher 54% of the time against 53%.
US stocks: returns after the signal
| After | Median return | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions (~1 week) | +0.21% | +0.15% | 52% | 51% |
| 20 sessions (~1 month) | +0.95% | +0.54% | 54% | 53% |
| 60 sessions (~3 months) | +3.48% | +2.12% | 59% | 56% |
How the 20-session outcomes are spread
Share of signals in each return bucket, next to the same share for any 20-session window.
By company size
| Group | Signals | Median 20-session | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega cap ($200B+) | 1,354 | +2.56% | +1.67% | 63% | 59% |
| Large cap ($10B–200B) | 17,233 | +1.30% | +0.95% | 56% | 55% |
| Mid cap ($2B–10B) | 21,536 | +1.07% | +0.60% | 55% | 53% |
| Small cap ($300M–2B) | 26,457 | +0.48% | +0.16% | 52% | 51% |
| Micro cap (under $300M) | 32,928 | -1.72% | -2.59% | 45% | 41% |
By sector
| Group | Signals | Median 20-session | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finance | 13,898 | +0.93% | +0.68% | 55% | 55% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 12,311 | +0.85% | +0.51% | 53% | 52% |
| Health Care | 9,286 | +0.54% | +0.15% | 52% | 50% |
| Technology | 7,683 | +1.13% | +0.41% | 54% | 51% |
| Industrials | 7,389 | +1.24% | +0.63% | 56% | 53% |
| Real Estate | 3,725 | +0.55% | +0.48% | 53% | 53% |
| Utilities | 2,702 | +0.78% | +0.51% | 56% | 54% |
| Energy | 2,595 | +2.19% | +0.67% | 59% | 53% |
| Basic Materials | 1,993 | +2.75% | +0.53% | 59% | 52% |
| Consumer Staples | 1,297 | +0.51% | +0.41% | 51% | 52% |
| Telecommunications | 1,280 | +0.62% | +0.24% | 52% | 51% |
| Food | 551 | -0.14% | -0.16% | 49% | 49% |
| Miscellaneous | 504 | -0.21% | -0.26% | 49% | 49% |
| AI | 479 | +3.77% | +1.86% | 61% | 56% |
| Aviation | 323 | -0.37% | +1.03% | 48% | 55% |
| Defence | 296 | +0.73% | +1.26% | 56% | 57% |
Crypto
8,999 signals in 389 coins. Crypto trades every day, so a "session" is a calendar day.
In this period, coins did better than usual after this signal: a median 20-session return of -2.73% against -3.62% for any 20-session window, and higher 43% of the time against 41%.
| After | Median return | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions (~1 week) | -0.38% | -0.62% | 48% | 46% |
| 20 sessions (~1 month) | -2.73% | -3.62% | 43% | 41% |
| 60 sessions (~3 months) | -9.07% | -9.98% | 38% | 37% |
Stocks with this signal right now
Companies above $2B where MarketWall's live engine currently flags this signal, with each stock's own record after its past signals of this type.
| Stock | Past signals | Median 20-session | Higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| TPC · Tutor Perini Corporation | 15 | +6.1% | 73% |
| BATRA · Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc. Series A | 21 | +1.5% | 57% |
| CDNL · Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. | — | — | — |
| CRDO · Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | 17 | +10.2% | 76% |
| SMMT · Summit Therapeutics Inc. | 22 | +13.6% | 68% |
| LIME · Neutron Holdings Inc. | — | — | — |
| BILI · Bilibili Inc. | 20 | -3.2% | 35% |
| BATRK · Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc. Series C | 20 | +2.2% | 55% |
| LUV · Southwest Airlines Company | 24 | -3.4% | 38% |
| FPS · Forgent Power Solutions Inc. | — | — | — |
| CORT · Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated | 14 | -0.2% | 50% |
| RAL · Ralliant Corporation | 1 | -5.6% | 0% |
| TSM · Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. | 21 | +6.1% | 71% |
| IDYA · IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. | 23 | -1.8% | 39% |
| ADPT · Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | 19 | +1.6% | 58% |
| HPE · Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | 21 | +6.4% | 67% |
| RVMDW · Revolution Medicines Inc. | — | — | — |
| OKTA · Okta Inc. | 20 | +5.4% | 60% |
| ENTG · Entegris Inc. | 26 | +3.7% | 62% |
| AUR · Aurora Innovation Inc. | 14 | +2.0% | 50% |
| WSE · Wise Group plc | — | — | — |
| LBTYA · Liberty Global Ltd. | 26 | -2.0% | 42% |
| WSC · WillScot Holdings Corporation | 22 | +0.7% | 55% |
| LBTYK · Liberty Global Ltd. | 25 | -1.2% | 48% |
| KN · Knowles Corporation | 18 | +2.0% | 61% |
Method and limits
- Counted on the first day the condition becomes true, with a 10-session cooldown.
- Baseline = every 20-session window for the same stocks over the same period, so the comparison shows what the signal adds beyond the market's general drift.
- Close-to-close returns, no dividends, no trading costs. Moves beyond +300% or -95% in 20 sessions are treated as data errors and left out.
- Only companies that still trade today are included (survivorship bias).
- Past results are not a forecast and not investment advice.