200-Day Moving Average Touch: what happened next
A signal is counted each time the closing price moves to within 1% of its 200-day simple moving average. We measured the price 5, 20 and 60 trading sessions later. What is 200-Day SMA Touch?
53,860 signals in 3,528 US stocks with a market cap of at least $300M, May 18, 2022 – October 9, 2026.
In this period, stocks did about the same after this signal as they did on any other day: the signal on its own did not tell you much about the next month.
US stocks: returns after the signal
| After | Median return | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions (~1 week) | +0.11% | +0.15% | 51% | 51% |
| 20 sessions (~1 month) | +0.51% | +0.54% | 53% | 53% |
| 60 sessions (~3 months) | +2.05% | +2.12% | 56% | 56% |
How the 20-session outcomes are spread
Share of signals in each return bucket, next to the same share for any 20-session window.
By company size
| Group | Signals | Median 20-session | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega cap ($200B+) | 1,107 | +1.31% | +1.67% | 56% | 59% |
| Large cap ($10B–200B) | 14,867 | +0.80% | +0.95% | 54% | 55% |
| Mid cap ($2B–10B) | 17,699 | +0.65% | +0.60% | 53% | 53% |
| Small cap ($300M–2B) | 20,187 | +0.20% | +0.16% | 51% | 51% |
| Micro cap (under $300M) | 16,535 | -1.63% | -2.59% | 43% | 41% |
By sector
| Group | Signals | Median 20-session | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finance | 12,873 | +0.92% | +0.68% | 57% | 55% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 9,580 | +0.54% | +0.51% | 52% | 52% |
| Industrials | 6,074 | +0.55% | +0.63% | 53% | 53% |
| Health Care | 6,017 | -0.40% | +0.15% | 49% | 50% |
| Technology | 5,335 | -0.03% | +0.41% | 50% | 51% |
| Real Estate | 3,502 | +0.35% | +0.48% | 52% | 53% |
| Utilities | 2,745 | +0.54% | +0.51% | 55% | 54% |
| Energy | 2,286 | +0.94% | +0.67% | 54% | 53% |
| Basic Materials | 1,539 | -0.78% | +0.53% | 47% | 52% |
| Consumer Staples | 1,039 | +0.17% | +0.41% | 51% | 52% |
| Telecommunications | 935 | -0.23% | +0.24% | 48% | 51% |
| Food | 514 | +0.01% | -0.16% | 50% | 49% |
| Miscellaneous | 345 | -0.96% | -0.26% | 47% | 49% |
| Aviation | 297 | +1.18% | +1.03% | 57% | 55% |
| AI | 285 | +1.76% | +1.86% | 54% | 56% |
| Defence | 257 | +1.75% | +1.26% | 60% | 57% |
Crypto
3,385 signals in 355 coins. Crypto trades every day, so a "session" is a calendar day.
In this period, coins did better than usual after this signal: a median 20-session return of -2.88% against -3.62% for any 20-session window, and higher 43% of the time against 41%.
| After | Median return | Baseline | Higher | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions (~1 week) | -0.47% | -0.62% | 48% | 46% |
| 20 sessions (~1 month) | -2.88% | -3.62% | 43% | 41% |
| 60 sessions (~3 months) | -12.91% | -9.98% | 32% | 37% |
Stocks with this signal right now
Companies above $2B where MarketWall's live engine currently flags this signal, with each stock's own record after its past signals of this type.
| Stock | Past signals | Median 20-session | Higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGRC · McGrath RentCorp | 29 | +0.5% | 55% |
| ARCC · Ares Capital Corporation | 24 | +1.3% | 67% |
| PSA · Public Storage | 28 | -0.6% | 46% |
| FULT · Fulton Financial Corporation | 17 | +3.3% | 59% |
| PHI · PLDT Inc. | 22 | -3.7% | 32% |
| H · Hyatt Hotels Corporation | 20 | +3.6% | 65% |
| HXL · Hexcel Corporation | 17 | +0.4% | 59% |
| STNE · StoneCo Ltd. | 9 | -0.2% | 44% |
| OHI · Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. | 21 | +1.4% | 62% |
| BSAC · Banco Santander - Chile ADS | 16 | +3.6% | 69% |
| DHC · Diversified Healthcare Trust | 5 | 0.0% | 40% |
| PPLI · People Incorporated | 22 | -3.0% | 36% |
| BSBR · Banco Santander Brasil SA | 30 | -0.2% | 47% |
| AR · Antero Resources Corporation | 20 | -0.8% | 45% |
| WFC · Wells Fargo & Company | 17 | +4.2% | 76% |
| TER · Teradyne Inc. | 10 | +4.6% | 70% |
| ADAMN · Adamas Trust Inc. 8.00% Series D Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | 12 | +3.1% | 83% |
| SCI · Service Corporation International | 27 | +0.5% | 56% |
| LPLA · LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 15 | +5.7% | 80% |
| HIG · The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. | 27 | +1.2% | 59% |
| YMM · Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | 19 | -1.5% | 37% |
| GENI · Genius Sports Limited | 13 | +3.4% | 54% |
| NMIH · NMI Holdings Inc. | 23 | +1.8% | 57% |
| AZZ · AZZ Inc. | 12 | -0.3% | 50% |
| VNOM · Viper Energy Inc. | 19 | +0.8% | 53% |
Method and limits
- Counted on the first day the condition becomes true, with a 10-session cooldown.
- Baseline = every 20-session window for the same stocks over the same period, so the comparison shows what the signal adds beyond the market's general drift.
- Close-to-close returns, no dividends, no trading costs. Moves beyond +300% or -95% in 20 sessions are treated as data errors and left out.
- Only companies that still trade today are included (survivorship bias).
- Past results are not a forecast and not investment advice.